Simulating Nature ─ A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice

Computer simulation has become an important means for obtaining knowledge about nature. The practice of scientific simulation and the frequent use of uncertain simulation results in public policy raise a wide range of philosophical questions. Most prominently highlighted is the field of anthropogenic climate change—are humans currently changing the climate?
Referring to empirical results from science studies and political science, Simulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice, Second Edition addresses questions about the types of uncertainty associated with scientific simulation and about how these uncertainties can be communicated.
The author, who participated in the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plenaries in 2001 and 2007, discusses the assessment reports and workings of the IPCC. This second edition reflects the latest developments in climate change policy, including a thorough update and rewriting of sections that refer to the IPCC.

IntroductionBackgroundFraming of the ProblemDefining Computer Simulation and Positioning It in SciencePhilosophical ApproachBrief Outline of This StudySimulation Practice, Uncertainty, and Policy AdviceThe Practice of Scientific SimulationIntroductionThe Simulation LaboratoryElements of Simulation-Laboratory PracticePlurality of Methodologies for Model Development and EvaluationPlurality of Values in Simulation PracticeThe Practices of Simulation and Experimentation ComparedConclusionA Typology of Uncertainty in Scientific SimulationIntroductionLocations of Simulation UncertaintyThe Nature of Simulation UncertaintyThe Range of Simulation UncertaintyRecognised Ignorance in SimulationThe Methodological Unreliability of SimulationValue Diversity in Simulation PracticeThe Uncertainties of Simulation and Experimentation ComparedConclusionAssessment of Simulation Uncertainty for Policy AdviceIntroductionThe Sound Science DebateThe Challenge of Postnormal ScienceThe Role of Simulation Uncertainty in Policy AdviceThe Guidance on Uncertainty Assessment and CommunicationConclusionThe Case of Simulating Climate Change The Practice of Climate SimulationIntroductionFunctions of Climate SimulationVarying Climate-Model ConcretenessThe Sociopolitical Context of Climate-Simulation PracticeEvaluating the Plurality of Climate-Simulation ModelsConclusionUncertainties in Climate SimulationIntroductionA General Overview of Uncertainty in Climate SimulationClimate-Simulation Uncertainty and the CausalAttribution of Temperature ChangeConclusionAssessments of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty for Policy AdviceIntroductionThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Its Communication of Climate-Simulation UncertaintyAn Example of Exploiting Societal Perspectives to Communicate Climate-Simulation UncertaintyConclusionConclusionsUncertainty Associated with Scientific SimulationDifferences and Similarities between Simulation and Experimental UncertaintyAssessment and Communication of Scientific Simulation Uncertainties in Science-for-PolicyUncertainty Associated with the Simulation-Based Attribution of Climate Change to Human InfluencesAssessment and Communication of Attribution Uncertainty by the ipcc ReferencesAppendix: Proceedings and Discussion of the IPCC Contact GroupMeeting on Attribution, 20 January 2001, ShanghaiIndex